Quinnian population dynamics

great convo. Good stuff being talked about. interested to know where sacha’s going, and thankful to coyote for giving me a heads-up that this convo was here. I have a recently-reached conclusion about what a mothers maternal need might play in population growth, and its possible slow-down. Here’s a paste from a post on another group that I posted today:

Personally, I imagine that once people are around each other more, less women will have children. When our ’baby desire’ (believe me, we have one) is met by handling and helping with fellow babies in the community, there won’t be such a desire to have so many individually. I have 3 kids. I didn’t plan them, no, but I didn’t stop them, either. That was a choice I couldn’t make. I have ensured I won’t have any more children, and yet, as I reach 30, I can’t deny that part of me misses it. I’m not saying I want to ever have any more kids, but there is something about giving life (and being part of that process) that has its perks. However, if I was assisting in other pregnancies in my community, would that desire be so great? I hang on because I know eventually I’ll have grandkids to take care of. If I had half a dozen babies from fellow community members to get my baby fix from, I don’t think that need would be so great.

Individual choice aside, our population WILL continue to grow as long as we produce more food than there is people. It isn’t about morals or individual choice. However, I don’t think Quinn took into account the maternal need when looking at the mechanics of overpopulation. I think this is something very important when looking into the future…

I look forward to attempting to keep up on this important topic! :slight_smile:

To the Vision of Truth,

STarr

Interesting that this is all under a heading of “Common Misconceptions” There are so many comments inserted into these posts that I take exception to, I couldn’t possibly address them all. They would for the most part be pointless tangents anyway.

“Considering most people of my generation are going to college and waiting to make enough money to support children of our own…”

Do you really think that’s true? Most people of your generation?

“…we may end up putting most of our energy towards helping to raise the children of the generation before ours rather than having our own.”

I’m not sure what you mean with that. It kind of sounds interesting but when I try to really figure what exactly that means I don’t get it. Of course you would be responsible for the children of the generation before yours. You are the children of the generation before yours.
Where I live I know a lot of people in their fifties and sixties who are having to raise their grandkids. My wife and I just had to take in a ten year old this year, when we were just settling into being grandma and grandpa. I know quite a few grandparents who are now raising young kids that are not their own. If your worried about having to do something like that, get used to it because it’s inevitable. We take care of each other right?

I can’t say for sure, I’m just going by the fact the population growth is supposedly slowing in first world countries and that none of my friends my age have kids.

I'm not sure what you mean with that. It kind of sounds interesting but when I try to really figure what exactly that means I don't get it. Of course you would be responsible for the children of the generation before yours. You [i]are[/i] the children of the generation before yours.

Actually, I was referring the people who are about 10 years older than my generation, not my parents generation. I guess that’s more like half a generation older.

Where I live I know a lot of people in their fifties and sixties who are having to raise their grandkids. My wife and I just had to take in a ten year old this year, when we were just settling into being grandma and grandpa. I know quite a few grandparents who are now raising young kids that are not their own. If your worried about having to do something like that, get used to it because it's inevitable. We take care of each other right?

I have no problem with it, I’m just trying to describe what I see happening.

NON-HUMAN ANIMALS AND POPULATION DYNAMICS - Part Two

In Part Two of the discussion on nonhuman animals and population discussion, I will reveal the answer to the bobcat question. But first, a discussion of birds.

A question. According to Quinnian population dynamics, the result of feeding birds at a home bird feeder should be to increase the bird population past the carrying capacity of the land they are on, and thus to set them up for starvation if you should ever at some point stop feeding them. Why does this not happen? Even if you go through twenty pounds of birdseed a week, you do not create birdie overpopulation. Why?


When I go out behind my cabin to dig a hole to poop, I notice the abundance of earthworms in the clods. Especially under the old apple trees, in the topsoil enriched by ninety years of applefall, earthworm life is especially dense.

I love my Earthworm relatives.  When I was a kid, I used to be late to school on rainy days because I had to save all the worms stranded on the pavement.  I love the way that an earthworm lying in a puddle on the sidewalk, ready to give up the ghost, will come back to life and to [i]ecstasy[/i] when it finds itself back in contact with the living soil.  I feel the sensuousness of their contact with the life force of the Earth as the worm disappears into the life-giving soil.  Part of the living soil itself, in active partnership with Plant life.  

When it rains, of course, the earthworms still come up to the surface of the ground, and that is when the robins have best earthworm-hunting.  On a wet spring day, the robins are taking my earthworms continuously, instead of looking for caterpillars among the leaves.

I love my earthworm relatives, and I'd hate to see their population lessened by robin predation.  According to Quinnian population dynamics, with so many earthworms available, there should be a big robin party in my yard, with the robins multiplying to the limits of the food supply, and a decline in the earthworm population as a result.

Not to worry.  There is only one breeding pair of robins that hunts in my yard.  A hundred feet or so down the hill lives another robin family.   Most spring and summer evenings, at dusk, I hear robin arguments from a laurel bush that seems to mark the boundary between their two territories.

(It is getting to be winter now, so they have left, but I am using the "anthropological present.")

Why do the robins maintain their population limits?  What happens to the robin population when their food supply increases or decreases?

Robins maintain territories during breeding season. [i]Territory[/i] is to be distinguished from [i]range[/i].   A bird's [i]range[/i] -- the distance it will travel in search of food -- is much larger than the bird's [i]territory[/i].  Many breeding pairs will share the same range.  But they will hold territories [i]within[/i] the range, and will fiercely defend their territories against intrusion.  Birds  sharing the range will quickly learn where the territories claimed by different breeding pairs are, and will avoid entering those areas.  (Yet, if one robin pair's nest is threatened by a predator, neighboring robins will come to their aid.)

The territory and range sizes of robins is typical of many common songbirds.  A pair's territory may be anywhere from a half acre to several acres; the range may be several square miles.  If, during breeding season, only one pair of a given species comes to your bird feeder, the feeder may be within that pair's territory. (Like the black-headed grosbeak pair coming to my feeder last summer.)  If a lot of birds of a given species come to your feeder, then you are inside no pair's territory but within all of their range.  (Like the song sparrows and juncos at my feeder.)

What happens when the babies fledge?  After they have been cared for by their parents and become independent, the breeding season may be ending.  With the end of breeding season comes more and more communal flocking.  Robins, who conspicuously hate each other during breeding system, form flocks to migrate and stay together as flocks on their winter grounds.  Then comes spring, and the beginning of a new breeding season, and the search for breeding sites and the battles over territory.

Now, if there is a lot of food available, territories do not need to be too large.  An animal expends a lot of energy defending its territory, and the larger the territory, the more work to defend it.  Animals don't try to make their territories larger than they have to.  A robin's territory, as mentioned, can range from as little as half an acre to as much as three acres.   The more food in the area, the smaller can be the territory.  Smaller territory means a greater population density. Thus, the more food, the more robins -- but [i]because there is a minimum size beyond which territory can grow no smaller[/i], there is a limit to the population density, no matter how abundant the food..

Usually, the range has plenty of room for all birds to find breeding territories.  The younger birds can find a vacant breeding territory if they go far enough.  But if the population were to grow to a certain point, all potential territories would be occupied.  That means that when the next generation hatches and adds to the existing population, no territories available will be available to the youngsters.  No territory means no place to breed.  That means that some young birds will have no chance of reproducing -- at least until the robin population is reduced enough.  Usually youngsters who cannot find a territory will leave the range entirely and seek territories further out. 

Similarly, the robin food supply were to drop, due to drought or other cause, the territories of breeding pairs would expand. In a place without much food, a robin pair's territory can be as much as three acres, or six times the half-acre of a territory where food is abundant.  If food supply drops, territory size expands, and all the potential territories can be filled, but now with a much smaller number of birds.  Now a [i]lot[/i] of younger birds may be unable to find territories -- and thus unable to breed.  Hence, the robin population drops as the food supply drops.

Predation has a greater impact on a smaller, more dispersed population than on a larger and denser one, and so even though predation is normally a minor factor in controlling bird populations, it can have an effect on a population reduced by lower food supplies.  Predation helps to maintain genetic diversity by removing some established birds in a range and increasing the likelihood that members of the younger generation will find a vacant territory. 

Most (if not all) birds maintain territories during breeding season.  These territories may be a few square feet (as among colony-breeding birds) or square miles (as among raptors).  For birds like robins and sparrows, territories usually range from half an acre to several acres, in a circle around the nest.  

The [i]range[/i] of these robins, on the other hand, covers some square miles.  The range is the area where the bird can range in search of food. Birds have territories (areas exclusively claimed by a breeding pair) within the same broad range.  They share the range, where it is not claimed as territory.  if a bird ventures into another bird's territory while crossing its range, it will be chased out.  Birds of a given species soon learn which areas of their range to stay out of.

What determines the size of the territory is the amount of food in the area.

If there is a lot of food, the territory size is smaller, as small as a half acre -- hence the robin families in the food-rich overgrown orchard where I live are only about a hundred feet apart.

Being worm-eaters and insect-eaters, robins don't come to my feeders.  But there are a lot of seed-eating song sparrows, juncos and towhees outside my door.  For the birds who come in numbers to my feeders (and even come inside to pick up the seed I have tracked in) my cabin is part of their range, but not part of any one breeding pair's territory

According to Quinnian population dynamics, by feeding the birds, we would be increasing their population beyond the land's carrying capacity for that species, making them dependent on our handouts and dooming them to starvation if we stop feeding them.

Yet this does not happen.  Birds do not overpopulate their ranges beyond the carrying capacity even if you go through many pounds of birdseed a month.   

(Continued -- the software has length limits on posts)

(Continued from previous post)

Density of population, in the birdie world, means density of territories. But the territories minimum sizes. In a food-rich environment, the robin territory may be as small as a half acre, which contains more food than the robin family needs. And no matter how much food is there, the territory will not be smaller than a half acre, even if the breeding pair could survive on a smaller territory. Nor will the robins start increasing the number of birds within their territories simply because more food is available. Only the breeding pair and their young live in the territory, no more.

Every bird has a minimum territory size, during breeding season. For colony nesters, the territory may be as small as a few square feet, but will be defended as fiercely against others of the same species as larger territories. For colony nesters (such as purple martins, rock doves, and herring gulls) the food range is shared.

The breeding territories of colony nesters are small and not used by the breeding pair as the food source, so nesting colonies can be and usually are densely populated. Why then do colony nesters not cover the land with their dense breed themselves into starvation?

Of course, many colony breeders are seabirds, and others like purple martins are limited by lack of suitable nesting sites, but even where this is not the case, colony nesters – or colony animals like prairie dogs, who also live in dense populations – do not saturate the land till they starve themselves. This is because the colonies themselves have territories, whose boundaries they defend against other colonies. Rock doves (also known as common city pigeons), who normally nest in colonies on cliffs, find perfect sites for nesting colonies on urban skyscrapers, and each colony has its own territory within the city that balances out the pigeon population with the food supply. This is why efforts to exterminate pigeons are fruitless, because the removal of some birds makes it possible for other birds to gain nest sites and keep the population the same. (This is also why pigeons can be a steady source of protein for urban dwellers.)

Like colony breeders, grazing herd animals share territories as a community and keep members of other herds out. The territory of the herd is somewhat mobile within the shared range, which allows them not to overgraze any one spot, but other herds must keep their distance, which keeps the population density below the level that would stress the range as a whole.

So now back to the bobcat question (how do bobcat populations fall when rabbit populations fall?) Bobcat populations regulate themselves much in the same way as bird populations do, except that wild felines do not form breeding pairs. Rather (with most felines other than lions), among felines, females will establish territories, and a male’s territory will encompass the territories of several females. Each territory establishes exclusive hunting rights for bobcats of that sex; females defend their territory against strange females, males against strange males, but both of them will tolerate intrusions by strange felines of the opposite sex.

Young bobcats are, at a certain age, driven out of their parents’ territory by the same-sex parent, and must search for their own territories. If the population of rabbits is low, then the existing territories will expand in size. The lower the rabbit population, the less chance a young bobcat will have of finding a vacant territory, especially one with enough food resources to support her and her kits. If there are no available territories, the young bobcat simply will not breed at all. So the answer to the bobcat question is that the decline in rabbits causes a decline in bobcats because many bobcats will be unable to breed. And some of them will starve, because without their own hunting territories they will be unable to hunt.

However, for the bobcats who have territories, the territory is always large enough to have more rabbits than the bobcat needs, so that in every territory, some rabbits will survive to populate the next rabbit generation, and the rabbit population will continue to be spread out throughout the various territories.

Wolves, as we all know, are pack animals, and packs have fixed territories whose boundaries are strictly defended. A pack is an extended family, with the unmated grown young from previous seasons helping to raise the next generation of cubs. Eventually, when they are several years old, the young will go off and look for territories of their own. But if food is not abundant and vacant territories unlikely to be found, the grown young may remain with their pack of origin for a long time. Then the territory must be large enough to support a larger pack, and there are more pack members to help defend a larger territory. And like all pack members, they help to feed and support the newest cubs. But these grown young wolves, as long as they remain with their pack of origin, do not reproduce. In each territory, there is only one breeding pair of wolves. So at times of less food, territory sizes are larger, while fewer wolves are reproducing. Thus, territory helps wolves to keep their populations in balance.

Territory size is an adaptation of all animal species to ensure that they do not just multiply and eat up all the food this year and starve the next. Under conditions of abundant food, there will be plenty of vacant territories – animals do not “quickly reproduce to fill their carrying capacity,” even if you define “carrying capacity” as number of potential breeding territories rather than as potential food supply. During periods of abundance, the population does not become so dense as to overexploit its food resources. Indeed, unoccupied territories could be considered to represent a reserve. During periods of of food stress, all territories may become occupied, but a food-gathering territory is always of a size that contains MORE food than is necessary, so that no matter how much the The carrying capacity of the land – in the sense of the amount of food energy available – IS the main determiner of territory size, but territory size is always large enough that food resources are not exploited up to their limits – that animals do NOT “quickly reproduce to fill up their carrying capacity.”

If overbreeding, overconsuming food, and then crashing through mass starvation were the normal way that animal populations were regulated, in nature, that would be very maladaptive for the ecosystems. A food source that is overconsumed may not recover. The disappearance of species because of overconsumption by the species that eat them would have serious repercussions for the whole ecosystem. If the predators have to wipe out the prey population and exhaust their food supply in order for their population to decline, if the land is full of desperate, starving, and overpopulated predators roaming and searching out the last remnants of the declining prey population, prey would often suffer local extinction, and neither prey nor predator would recover. If grasses and other edible plants are constantly overgrazed by overpopulated ungulates, it would accelerate erosion and open the door for other, less edible plant species to take over (as sagebrush has taken over many overgrazed grasslands). And eventually, through natural selection, only inedible plants would remain.

Moreover, since many different animal species eat the same foods – seeds, insects, grass, rodents, etc – if one animal species overpopulates, consumes all its available food, and crashes because of starvation, a lot of other species who have not overpopulated are going to starve to death as well. If the antelope multiplied to the limit of the available grass, to the point where they starved for lack of food, other grazing animals who depend upon that grass would have no food either. But overgrazing is a problem only where humans’ domestic herds graze. Domestic pastoralists overgraze; buffalo, antelope and wildebeest do not.

Now to Daniel Quinn and his mice. (The mouse story, from The Story of B, can be read at http://www.awok.org/boiling-frog/ , starting about halfway down under the heading “Food availability.” Basically, he postulates an expandable mouse cage and the scenario of increasing or stopping mouse population growth by increasing or limiting their food supply.) I have a lot of experience with wild mice, and was going to write about them in detail. But suffice to say that mice are territorial as well. Mouse reproduction rates are directly linked to food supply; the more food, the larger and more frequent their litters. Like other rodents they are dependent on predation to keep their numbers in check, but their main defense against predation is their high reproductive rate. (Coyotes, like mice, can adjust their litter size from one generation to the next, so that if a number of coyotes are poisoned in a territory, the population can be quickly replenished.)

But mice are territorial, and when their territories are filled to capacity, they have smaller litters, less frequent litters, and will even eat the babies they have. Daniel Quinn casually mentions that his mouse cage can be expanded to any size, but other than that, the issue of space for the mice is not mentioned. He doesn’t mention that if you stop expanding the mouse cage, the mouse population increase will stop when the territories are saturated. The mice will stop multiplying at that point no matter how many tons of food you give them. And, if you severely overcrowd them, they will go insane and start killing each other.

An ecosystem based on the principle every animal is supposed to compulsively reproduce until it fills its carrying capacity would lose biodiversity, would be continually degraded in its ability to support life, would have species dying out through no fault of their own, but rather because of another species’ destructiveness.

But wait! That is what is happening, isn’t it! Not because every animal has been following this principle, but because one species has been doing this.

This is a description of modern civilization’s effect upon the world, as though by believing that this is the principle by which the living world operates, we have created a self-fulfilling prophecy for our species

Since the beginning of the industrial / capitalist era, the view has developed that humans are essentially selfish, and that all people are in competition with one another. Adam Smith in the eighteenth century articulated a moral foundation for the emerging capitalist system, that even if individuals were driven by selfishness and greed, the competition in the free market would tend to benefit society as a whole. Society ran on selfishness and competitiveness, and society was benefited if everyone fanatically pursued their own personal interests to the absolute limits possible.

Enter Darwin into this cultural milieu, and interpreted through the filter of capitalism and industrialism, natural selection becomes all about competition. “Survival of the fittest” becomes survival of the most ruthlessly competitive, those who pursue their own individual/ family/ species interest most relentlessly. If species help each other, it is inadvertent, through pursuing their own interests (like rabbits and bobcats). In ecosystems or in human society, the system runs by everyone pursuing their own selfish greed to the max. (That is what the statement that “every animal reproduces very quickly to fill up their carrying capacity” translates to. And it is simply not true. Kind of like the lie that is pounded into us, that many people believe, that human beings have an intrinsic need to accumulate material stuff.)

As a person from a non-“civ” cultural background, I feel uncomfortable with some of the subtle “civ” influences I see in this movement.

The idea every species is competing to increase its own population to the absolute maximum possible is simply the projection of the capitalist principle of greed onto the natural world. (This movement lacks a clear understanding of the differences between precapitalist and capitalist civilizations. Precapitalist civilizations had more rigid hierarchies and less freedom than capitalist civilization, but capitalist civilization is far more destructive than precapitalist civilization. And understanding the difference between capitalist and precapitalist civilizations is important to understanding where we are.)

Quinnian population dynamics is very much an idea born of “civ,” and of capitalist civilization specifically. It has subtle but deep ramifications for this movement, some of which I feel are harmful. So that is why I feel this is worth discussing.


Next I will talk about human hunter-gatherers, then horticultural tribes, then the relationship of agriculture, population growth, and civilization, and then the modern population explosion.

So I want to start by saying I am really enjoying your posts, Sacha. They are very well thought-out and are pretty smooth to read. That being said, I have to admit that I never got the impression from Quinn that you are; that he assumes only food availability plays a role in population growth. I’m sorry I don’t have a quote, but I always got from his mice story (that I think is in another book or two, not just in the teachings of B) that the sides of the cage moving are an important factor. That food availability - provided there is room to grow into - leads to population growth. Once we hit those walls, there is definitely a boundary there. I looked on ishmael.org, and while this one isn’t specifically by Quinn, I know he looks over all the answers provided there, and this one definitely describes a land’s ‘carrying capacity’ as something more than food availability:

A central and repeatedly stated assertion of the two Quinn books I read is that at some time humans lived in a stable equilibrium. That is not a worldview, that is an assertion of fact. A particular fact that is problematic in proving, yet Quinn claims to know it is true. He actually waters it down at one point and says that human population did grow steadily before some arbitrary level of agricultural innovation, but that it was slower than in recent times. My question is: Why should I believe that modern humans ever existed in a stable equilibrium? I believe that the growth rate has not been constant, yet how could I know that the early history of humans is fundamentally different from exponential growth in which growth is relatively slow for a long time early on?

…and the response:
In fact, NO species is EVER in stable equilibrium (and if you do find one that way, it won’t be for very long). Environmental changes keep individuals constantly shifting strategies (those that can shift strategies) between reproduction/propagation of their genes in times of bounty and survival in times of shortage. (Obviously, these are the extremes of a gradient.) Since individuals are shifting from “make babies” (or seeds) to “hold on to all resources and survive at all costs” and since populations are made up of individuals who will all be, more or less, subject to the same environmental conditions, you can expect that ALL populations will fluctuate in size around the carrying capacity of an area. (Note that the carrying capacity of an area actually changes as environmental changes occur.) I have trivialized the factors that go into “environmental change” – these can be everything from increases in predation pressure, competition with other species for resources, bad weather, natural disasters, outbreaks of parasites, etc. Throughout all the ups and downs, there is always give and take among the members (species) of the community…not because they choose that to be the case, but rather as times and conditions change, so too does the species with the biggest advantage at any given time.

The fact that humans survived for more than 200,000 years WITHOUT destroying the world around them suggests that, at one time, we too lived by the rules of “limited competition” that Dan describes in his books. The fact that we are now in the process of destroying every living thing on the planet to make room for our food or our food’s food (turning the biomass of the planet into human mass) means we are no longer playing by “the rules.” In Dan’s words, we are no longer “living in the hands of the gods.”

[NOTE: This question was answered by Dr. Alan Thornhill.]-------

I’m not trying to stir anything up, I just really get the impression there is more to Quinn’s theory than just food…

I still am very interested to hear your further processes on this topic. :slight_smile:

To the Vision of Truth,

STarr

Sacha, I hear what you are saying, an I generally agree, and I also generally agree that the factors you mention are often not overtly considered in discussions around population. Certainly, from my perspective, I often assume carrying capacity = food supply, but the real definition of carrying capacity is the sustainable resource extraction possible. This means that the statement that population expands to fill carrying capacity is essentially true, as the various mechanisms that you’ve mentioned have evolved to keep population within sustainable limits. I’m not trained in biology, but I think that you might find that animals farther down the food chain are generally more likely to eat up all the possible food, beyond carrying capacity, because they have might rely more on predation to maintain a sustainable population. However, that is pure supposition.

However, this all changes when you add in something like agriculture or domestication, which attempts to break most of the natural restrictions against using up all the food in order to maximize labor. This means that population gets generally more, not completely, but more tied to the actual totally food available instead of carrying capacity.

Sacha-
I’ve put on my moderator hat now and I have to address some things about your posting style. I smell a buzziness to this thread that I don’t really want here at rewild.info.

First I have to reiterate and agree with other posters that I in general really enjoy your posts and notice how substantially they contribute to the rewild.info. Thank you.

Your understanding of your subject seems quite deep. Your understanding of the community here falls a bit short.

As a person from a non-"civ" cultural background, I feel uncomfortable with some of the subtle "civ" influences I see in this movement.

I’d love to hear your ideas. Please leave name-calling out of it; I ask for no more references to “civ” influences, ideas born of “civ”, or whatever. Ideas either create life for individuals, or don’t. And as for “civ influences”, it would surprise me if anyone here remained free of them, including yourself. I don’t measure things on how much “civ” has influenced them; I measure them on how much “life” they create. Please do the same while here, at least when referring to other members.

Countless stories of rewilding exist. I encourage you to ask individuals here about theirs, if you feel uncomfortable. I also encourage you to speak about your ideas on their own merit, rather than as an attempt to fix how we think, okay?

Also, I discourage talk of a “movement”. Everyone’s rewilding differs, and mine changes and deepens every day.

Thanks again for sharing your knowledge, and I hope we can continue in a way that honors all participants in this discussion.

Sacha,

Everything you’ve written matches perfectly with how I understand Quinn population dynamics.

So now I wonder… Have you read his books?

…Have you watched the population growth DVD?

What we see go hand in hand with agriculture is the moral shift from “tending the wild” to “domesticating the wild.” It becomes okay to “take more than you need” (which as you’ve shown above, doesn’t happen normally in the wild) because when you practice agriculture, you put all your eggs in one basket. All your food comes from mono-crops which can fail at any time for various reasons. The only way to avoid the pain of a famine (if your an agriculturalist) is to store a surplus of food; to take much more than you need because your altered environment will no longer provide enough… you must make it provide enough. So you can see that full-time agriculture also leads to a reorganization of cultural population check and balance morals.

As Matt said, Carrying Capacity really means the population level of an animal species using sustainable resource extraction, not the food supply of an animal species. That doesn’t make what Willem said, “In the language of systems thinking, food operates as a ‘limit to growth’,” untrue. It supports it. When you have a culture ignoring natural population checks around its carrying capacity, the only limit to its growth will be food or room to grow more food. Because we no longer have territories (we fit millions of people into a few square miles), space doesn’t matter. Civ’s only limit to growth is our food, and the space to grow it. Of course, crop failure and diseases and wars limit the growth too, but not enough to stop the exponential growth. We fight these natural checks and balances at every turn; food surplus, pesticides, anti-biotics.

This is why famine/starvation is extremely common among agriculturalists all over the world and in previous civilizations (and entirely a result of their own doing), and extremely rare among hunter-gatherers & all other-than-humans (and usually happens because of a natural catastrophe, not because of their own actions). This is also why famine/starvation/die-off is often thought of as part of collapse; because we have exceeded a population level well beyond sustainable resource extraction.

As you’ve wonderfully shown above, wild populations have many limits to growth. Take out those limits, put mice in a cage (with no natural predators and ever expanding walls) and you’ll have exponential growth. Give humans agricultural, and you’ll have exponential growth. That’s Quinns point.

[quote=“Willem, post:28, topic:1140”]Sacha-
I’ve put on my moderator hat now and I have to address some things about your posting style. I smell a buzziness to this thread that I don’t really want here at rewild.info.[/quote]

As a newbie who is still getting a feel for what IS wanted here, could you clarify what you mean by this? I am really looking for a different experience here, too, and don’t want to participate in any ‘buzziness’ if I can help it. :slight_smile: Thanks.

STarr

Sacha,

Wow. Thank you. I really look forward to the next section as well.

This really helps bring depth to my understanding of, well, all life.

I was working on a farm over the summer and like with any house, the house I lived in got its share of ants coming into the kitchen. Generally, the ants would come in mostly when we left dirty dishes around, but there’d still be a few foraging if things were kept relatively clean. One day we had quite a number of ants come in, and I thought, well, I read about making offerings to ants in the Spell of the Sensuous, so why not try to cooperate with these neighbors. So I put out a dish of honey for them (which I later realized was a mistake, as ants can’t readily carry honey back to their home).

But, as I was doing this I had doubts. I mean, wouldn’t trying to offer these ants food just increase their food supply, giving us a troublesome number of ants. I had learned somewhere along the way (whether it was from something in Quinn’s work, my high school environmental science class, or some other source doesn’t matter) that population is a function of food supply, period. So, I couldn’t quite make sense of it, and since I offered them something they didn’t seem to care for (a poor way to treat guests, I admit), I never had any insight into this seeming contradiction.

But now I think I am coming to some understanding, thanks to your essays here. Thank you.

~wildeyes

“Quinnian population dynamics is very much an idea born of “civ,” and of capitalist civilization specifically. It has subtle but deep ramifications for this movement, some of which I feel are harmful. So that is why I feel this is worth discussing.”

Willem, I want to say first that I’m not in any way argueing with your moderation. I feel like you have a pretty good feeling for when things are heading off into other territory.

The quote I took from Sacha’s post does begin to express something that I have felt for a long time though. From my earlier posts about academia and university education you may get that impression. Going into it more here would probably be inappropriate but I wanted to say that I think what she expressed there would be valuable for us all to examine. On our own if this isn’t the place.

Hey, no problem. I trust you and your instincts too; if you have a story to tell about this, how bout starting another thread?

I definitely don’t want to hold space for conversations about whose point of view has more of “civ’s influence”, but if you can find a healthy way to articulate your insight it I’d love to hear it.

I’d love to answer those questions; how bout starting a new thread so Sacha and crew can focus on their discussion?

I’m going to admit a bias. Since I don’t personally know many people here, I’m trying to not let my bias over-react and push people away.

I’ve had some very bad experiences with folks that claim Darwin as a philosophical guide. Be they Science Professors, Hard-Core Survivalists, or just reading Friedrich Nietzsche, it has appeared to me a life-philosophy that embraces fear, greed, brutality, oppression, and pretty much everything that got us to this point in civilization. For instance, whether you believed in “Manifest Destiny” or “survival of the fittest,” the end result was still a bunch of murdered natives.
I’ve seen this in action on personal level too, where professors believed they need to “weed out the weak ones” or we’d have too many mediocre graduates of the Biology program. Competition was encouraged; true teamwork was frowned upon (funny, I didn’t see any of this mal-adaptive behavior in the History department).

So ok… fast-forward to present. When I hear something that seems like an over-simplification of an evolutionary principle in order to support a philosophical point of view, all my buzzers and sensors go off. I’ve read Jason’s 30 points, and I’ve read quotes and passages from Quinn, but my first impression of how they understand and apply evolutionary theory is one of alarm and concern. I’m aware of my bias and how it makes me overly-sensitive on this point, but at the same time I would think Jason and Urban Scout would want to know that I shy away from and am frightened by their message (even if it is because of bias).

On the other hand, what attracts me to Sacha’s message is that it seems a less threatening, more holistic approach that’s still asking questions rather than only answering them. Also, it feels like Sacha’s approach honors my spirit and intuition as much as my logic and brain.

This is where I’m at; but as a new-comer to this group I’m to scared to debate much, because I might step on toes or be told I haven’t read enough books yet.

I can’t speak for Jason or Urban Scout, but I do recommend starting a thread addressing any questions or concerns specific to them, if you take issue with how they carry their message.
You say “i would think they would want to know” - have you tried telling them and it hasn’t worked?

This is where I'm at; but as a new-comer to this group I'm to scared to debate much, because I might step on toes or be told I haven't read enough books yet.

I don’t really understand this; why would having new resources to explore to help you more fully understand the discourse here scare you? Unfortunately (or, really, in my mind “fortunately”) Rewild.info assumes you’ve done enough work that you feel hungry for conversations which take a whole bunch of foundational understandings for granted.

When I hear something that seems like an over-simplification of an evolutionary principle in order to support a philosophical point of view, all my buzzers and sensors go off.

I really, really, really encourage you to ask questions of those here who you don’t understand, or who say things that make you feel uncomfortable. I don’t see any other way to understanding each other.

I’d like this to mark the last message about the nature of this thread, rather than the subject of this thread (i.e. Sacha’s view of Quinnian population dynamics). I’ve stepped in to do some moderation; if you have questions or comments about them, start another thread specifically about your concern.

Ink/Annie, I’ve asked you some questions that I’d love to hear the answers to; please start a new thread if you’d like to explore those or any other subject.

Anything else besides further posts by Sacha (or perhaps Jason and Urban Scout to answer questions/address observations Sacha has made about their work), I will shunt to the humanure bucket. This thread has gotten too messy.

Starr, hi!

I always got from his mice story ... that the sides of the cage moving are an important factor. That food availability - provided there is room to grow into - leads to population growth. Once we hit those walls, there is definitely a boundary there.

Quinn mentions that the expanding cage helps to “avoid stressful overcrowding.” Overcrowding could cause the mice to become violent, even cannibalistic, so we don’t want that.

But overcrowding is a different issue from territory. Overcrowding has to do with personal space – don’t come within so many inches or feet of me (unless you are part of my intimate group). We carry our personal space with us, around us, wherever we go.

Territory, on the other hand, is fixed in a geographical location. Territory is a place.

Territory is also much larger than personal space, which may not be much bigger than the size of your body. You can have a population density that is low enough not to cause overcrowding stress, but has no room for breeding territories.

Territoriality – our bond to Place – is an instinct among animal species that keeps them from overpopulating, overconsuming their food, degrading their habitat, and starving other species that depend on the same food.

But territorial instincts can be deformed so that they no longer serve their purpose. Wolves do not overpopulate their territories. Dogs, on the other hand, are euthanized by the millions every year because of pet overpopulation. They are territorial, but their territorial and pack instincts have been deformed and confused, and no longer serve to prevent them from overpopulating.

Humans, like dogs, are territorial, but our territorial instincts have been deformed and no longer prevent us from overpopulating and degrading our habitat.

This is one of the reasons that becoming spiritually connected to the spirit of a Place is vital for us to begin to remember who we are, as human kinds of beings, and in turn to live as human kinds of beings on this land.


Urban Scout, I have read [i]Ishmael,[/i] [/i]My Ishmael,[/i] and [i]The Story of B.[/i]  And what I said above does fundamentally contradict one of the core principles of Quinnian population dynamics.   ([i]The Story of B[/i] contains the clearest exposition IMO of Quinnian population dynamics overall, and all page numbers referenced will be from [i]The Story of B.[/i])

Quoted from [i]The Story of B[/i]: 
[b]An increase in food availability for a species means growth for that species.[/b]( p 295)
 [b]A fundamental law of ecology: An increase in food availability means [i]growth[/i] for that species. (p 301)   Always.  Without exception... More food -- growth....[/b] (p 300)

These are fundamental tenets of Quinnian population that I disagree with.  My post was trying to show why I feel those tenets are wrong.

[i]In the wild,[/i] populations do [i]not[/i] keep growing and growing and growing if their food supply is increased.  There are parameters -- limits beyond which a wild population will not grow no matter how much you feed it, and there aee limits to how far populations decline under normal circumstances (no catastrophes).

You could feed the wild birds kilos of bird seed every day, and you will [i]not[/i] cause a birdie overpopulation even though, because of you, there is an increase in food availability for those species.  


Let us look carefully at Quinn's mouse story.  [i]The Story of B[/i] has two versions of the mouse story, and this is from the version starting on p 298: 

<blockquote>Into a nice, roomy cage we introduce two young. healthy mice... [and] shove in two kilos of food. This is obviously much more than the two mice need, but that will do no harm and you'll soon see the point of it.  Next day we take out the feeder, discard the uneaten food, and replace it with another two kilos.  We do this every day.  Soon the two mice become four, the four become eight, the eight become sixteen, the sixteen become thirty-two.  We continue to put in two kilos of food every day, and... eventually there comes a day when [b]all[/b] of it is eaten.  No matter.  We continue to put two kilos of food in the cage every day, and every day the two kilos of food are eaten.  Now guess what happens to the population.  It stops growing.  It levels off ...

Demonstration two begins much the same way.  Cage.  Two mice.  This time, however, we follow a different procedure.  Instead of putting the same amount of food every day, we start with one amount and increase it daily....Before long there are eight mice, sixteen mice, thirty-two mice.... Whatever the mice eat in one day, we put in fifty percent more the next, carefully extending the cage as needed to avoid stressful overcrowding.  Two thousand, four thousand, eight thousand sixteen thousand, thirty-two thousand, sixty-four thousand.  At this point, someone runs in and yells, "Stop!  Stop!  This is a population explosion!"</blockquote>


Very significantly, this story starts out with a [i]cage[/i].  And with [i]laboratory[/i] mice, not wild mice.  A [i]domesticated animal[/i] who has been bred for thousands of generations to live in domesticated conditions. Prisoners in an artificial environment, under the control of an owner with his own agenda.  They probably live under fluorescent lights, too.

In domesticated conditions, you [i]can[/i] force certain animals to produce virtually without limit. Not every species, not even most species, but certain species.

Most species will not reproduce in captivity at all, or with great difficulty -- ask any zoo, even the most spacious and luxurious ones.  But a few animal species do lend themselves to domestication and captive breeding.   White mice are one.

Let us say that you have a white mouse-production business.  Basically a white mouse factory farm.  Let us say that there is a great demand for white-mouse soup in some populous Asian country and the market for your white mice is unlimited 

You don't actually need to create an expanding cage in order to breed unlimited numbers of white mice.  All you need to do is to regularly remove a portion of your mouse population, either to ship out, or to form the breeding base in other cages.  Then, by increasing their food, you can increase your mice without limit.  You can keep breeding mice in each cage and multiply the mouse cages until you have four thousand, eight thousand, sixteen thousand cages...  and you ship white mice out by the kiloton.  Sometimes the market for white mice declines temporarily and, yes, you can slow down their breeding by cutting back their food.  But mostly, the more white mice you can breed, the more you can sell.   

Fortunately for you, white mice are a domesticated animal that have mostly lost their territorial instinct.  You just need to provide enought space to avoid stressful overcrowding, and in exchange for their unlimited food they will breed for you in unlimited numbers.  You have rows and rows of white mouse cages stacked meters high. With enough stacks of mouse cages and enough food, you can raise a million mice per acre.  Where once an acre supported a minimum of fifty thousand mice.

Is the food you give them the [i]cause[/i] of the mouse numbers?

Or is the [i]cause[/i] of the mouse numbers your manipulation of their populations?

Or could we even say that that the cause of the mouse population increase is the international market that makes mouse-farming profitable?

If the [i]cause[/i] of the mouse population increase were simply the food, you could simply dump all that food in the middle of a field for the wild mice to gorge themselves and increase.

However, the [i]wild[/i] mice [i]will not increase[/i] past the population ceiling that is in their genes.

It is very significant that Daniel Quinn's mouse story begins with a [i]cage[/i] and a domesticated animal, that is manipulated into overbreeding, in a scenario that would ever be found in the wild. 

"Eventually there comes a day when [b]all[/b] of [the food] is eaten."  This is not something that would happen with wild mice.  It does not happen with wild animals at all.  Wild animals do not eat up [i]all[/i] the food, except under catastrophic circumstances -- either most of the food supply is destroyed by a catastrophe, or else, in the case of predator-dependent animals like deer and rabbits, the predators disappear, which is also a catastrophe.

In other words, it is simply untrue that under normal, non-manipulated, non-catastrophic circumstances, that animals will breed to the limits of their food supply.  If you have ever had mice in your house, chewing their way into the food in your cupboards, have they ever eaten [i]all[/i] the food available to them, or even most of it?  

Domestication of an animal means manipulation of that animal and its instincts, and eventual deformation of its instincts.  Let us take Leghorn chickens, the breed which is used commercially both for egg production and meat production.  These chickens can be raised in conditions of extreme crowding, with their beaks cut off so they don't peck each other to death.  By giving them virtually unlimited food and keeping them under 24-hour lights, Leghorn egg-layers in their tiny cages can be manipulated into producing 300 eggs per year or more, over three times the number produced by their wild ancestor, the red jungle fowl of Southeast Asia.  If given some time off to get their eggs fertilized, they could produce several hundred fertile eggs that could hatch into chicks ... but Leghorns have completely lost their instinct to set on eggs and hatch them, let alone to raise baby chicks.  Their eggs have to be hatched in electric incubators, and if humans did not hatch their eggs for them, the breed would quickly go extinct.



Quinn does not seem to recognize a difference between domesticated, manipulated animals and wild ones.  He says (p 262 of [i]The Story of B[/i]), "[T]here’s nothing special about mice in this regard. The same will happen with crickets or trout or badgers or sparrows."

All right, let us look at each of these creatures in turn.

[i]Crickets[/i] could actually demonstrate Quinn's model very well.  Crickets are one of the animals who are heavily preyed upon by other creatures and who defend themselves by prolific reproduction. If you put crickets in a cage and feed them a lot of food, and give them the other required conditions, they will multiply like crazy, and they don't even seem to care about overcrowding.  They will pile up and walk all over each other's heads.  

[i]However,[/i] only in a cage situation could you produce cricket overpopulation.  No matter how many tons of food you deliver to a [i]wild[/i] cricket population, you could never succeed in create an overpopulation of wild crickets.  

[i]Trout[/i], of course, are not territorial, but are sensitive to overcrowding.  You [i]can[/i] farm trout and manipulate them into overbreeding by overfeeding them, as long as you regularly remove much of the population. 

[i]Badgers[/i].  At first I thought, "Yeah, good luck creating a badger factory!"  Badgers are not exactly domesticable creatures and would fiercely maintain their territories.  But then I realized that you could probably factory-farm badgers the same way that minks are  farmed.  You could give the breeders a place to breed that simulates wild conditions and allows them adequate breeding territory, and as soon as the young badgers are weaned, you remove them and put them inside cages that are stacked on top of each other.  Removing the young badgers could increase your badger reproduction rate.  But if you think that you can increase the badger reproduction rate by giving your badgers a lot more Badger Chow, you will be disappointed. Why?  Because badgers, unlike laboratory mice, are [i]wild[/i] animals.  

But badgers outside in the wild, following their own life, instead of producing for your badger factory?  You can give them as much Badger Chow as you want, they will not act like the mouse cage prisoners.

[i]Sparrows[/i] -- sorry, you just are not going to do this with sparrows [i]at all.[/i]   Even though wild sparrows (most species) have small breeding territories and therefore appear to have high population densities, you will not persuade sparrows to overbreed as prisoners in a cage environment no matter how much you feed them.  It would be very difficult to get sparrows to breed at all in a cage, let alone overbreed.  And Quinn's model of domesticated prisoner-mice does not work with wild sparrows, either; you cannot create birdie overpopulation by feeding wild birds.   However, some birds, like certain finches, can be captive-bred into artificially increasing their population.   You can create fairly dense breeding populations by putting up visual barriers so that they cannot see that other breeding pairs are close in their proximity. But most birds will not do this. 

In fact, [i]most[/i] species will not reproduce in captivity at all, no matter how much food you give them -- ask any zoo.  

So it is simply not true that "There is nothing special about mice in this regard." Mice [i]are[/i] special in this regard, and domesticated white mice even more so.   You cannot replicate the white mouse experiment with most animals even in captivity  -- most animals will not  domesticate, and most animals will reproduce reluctantly if at all in a prison environment, forget overpopulating the prison -- and you cannot replicate the experiment [i]at all[/i] with wild animals.  Outside of catastrophe, wild animals do not simply mechanically reproduce to the limits of their food supply or the carrying capacity of their land.

Domesticated animals are "special," by definition -- because although many animals can be [i]tamed,[/i] only a very few species can be [i]domesticated.[/i]  

Jared Diamond defines a domestic animal as "an animal selectively bred in captivity and thereby modified from its wild ancestors, for use by humans who control the animal's breeding and food supply."

And, very importantly, although their owners will try to take care of their needs and keep them healthy, domesticated animals live to serve someone else's purpose, not their own.

With so many species on our planet facing extinction, why are there so many cattle?  Why so many sheep?  Why so many more pigs?

Because these species are [i]domesticated.[/i] And their numbers are large, so much larger than the numbers of their wild ancestors, because their owners have manipulated them into increasing, for the owners' benefit.

The animals are not consulted as to whether they want this.  All that matters is that the owners of these animals profit by increasing their numbers.

Food is a tool that makes it [i]possible[/i] to increase the animals' numbers.  But food is not the [i]cause[/i] of their population increase. If food were a simple, mechanistic cause, you could increase any wild animal's population indefinitely just by increasing its food.  But even with the most ideal conditions, you cannot do that with wild animals.   Increasing food supply makes it [i]possible[/i]  to increase your domestic animal population.


Why are there so many humans?

For the same reason as there are so many cattle, sheep, and pigs.  Because our species is [i]domesticated,[/i] and like other domesticated animals, we have been manipulated into increasing far beyond the numbers of our wild ancestors (so to speak) for the profit of someone else.  Since civilizations began, its rulers have increased their power, wealth, and privilege by increasing their human populations under their control.

It wasn't our idea to increase, and it is not to our benefit.   The Leghorn chicken is not necessarily better off than its wild ancestor the Southeast Asian red jungle fowl, simply because the Leghorn population outnumbers the red jungle fowl population a thousand to one.

And our increase was [i]not[/i] an automatic, mechanical response to food supply. Wild, unmanipulated animals do [i]not[/i] automatically and mechanically increase their numbers if their food supply increases.  [i]Within certain parameters[/i] the populations increase and decrease, but population does [i]not[/i] increase in a linear, exponential way if food increases in an exponential way -- [i]in the wild[/i].  

If increased food automatically translates to increased population, consider -- salmon used to run so thickly up the Columbia that it appeared one could cross the river by walking on their backs, and their rotting bodies on the banks were an important source of nutrients to the forest.   If populations automatically increase to the carrying capacity, then why did indigenous peoples on the Columbia (not to mention bear populations) [i]not[/i] increase their numbers up to the limit of the food supply provided by the salmon, especially during years of even larger salmon runs? 

And if increased food automatically translated to increased population, and excessive food to overpopulation, why can you not cause wild birds to overpopulate by feeding them, no matter how much food you give them?

[i]Only among domesticated animals, whose populations are being artificially manipulated by another for their benefit,[/i] is there unlimited, linear population increase in response to linear increase in food.

Food makes it possible to increase your population of cattle or chickens -- or humans. But food supply is not the [i]cause[/i] of their population increase, any more than the existence of a a knife is the [i]cause[/i] of people getting stabbed.  Food is the [i]tool[/i] that makes it [i]possible[/i] to increase the population of your herds, or towns or or empires.  

Food (totalitarian agriculture) also makes it possible to [i]control[/i] these large numbers of people. (But I'm getting ahead of myself.  That discussion is for a later post.)

Willem - point taken.  I will try to be a good community member.

Ink - appreciation.  I think you should go with your intuition, your intuition is good!  (imho)

Starr again --

<blockquote>I believe that the growth rate has not been constant, yet how could I know that the early history of humans is fundamentally different from exponential growth in which growth is relatively slow for a long time early on?</blockquote>

I will get to humans, but in order to talk about hunter-gatherer populations I first have to establish how [i]normal[/i] (which means [i]wild[/i]) animals live and handle their populations.

This is a very interesting thread, I’m enjoying the discussion. :slight_smile:

I do have a question for Sacha tho’.

I’m trying to tie in the behaviour you describe with the reindeer situation on St Matthew Island.

Here’s a brief overview:

David Klein's classic study of the reindeer on St. Matthew Island illustrates the point.26 In 1944 a population of 29 animals was moved to the island, without the corrective feedback (negative feedback) of such predators as wolves and human hunters. In 19 years the population swelled to 6,000 and then "crashed" in 3 years to a total of 41 females and one male, all in miserable condition. Klein estimates that the primeval carrying capacity of the island was about 5 deer per square kilometer. At the population peak there were 18 per square kilometer. After the crash there were only 0.126 animals per square kilometer and even this was probably too many once the island was largely denuded of lichens.

Granted, due the nature of reindeer on an island, this does simulate the cage portion of Quinn’s mouse scenario. I’m not that familiar with reindeer specifically, so I’m not sure how much they rely on reproduction as predation defense, although I can see how that might have played into the overpopulation on St Matthew Island.

At any rate, do you think you could sketch out the connections a bit for me?

[b]without the corrective feedback (negative feedback) of such predators as wolves and human hunters.[/b]

As I have mentioned, the only animals that do reproduce until they eat up all their food (outside of the microscopic world) are animals who are dependent on predators to keep their populations in line, when the predators on which they are dependent are removed.

This is why I also always specified “under normal circumstances” “in the absence of a catastrophe,” etc. The removal of their predators qualifies as a catastrophe, one which would virtually never happen under natural circumstances, but which has been common enough to witness in post-conquest North America, where predators have often been intentionally removed.

This dramatic demonstration has helped to create awareness of “the balance of nature” but also has created the widespread and erroneous impression that all animals will overpopulate and eat up everything in sight if they get the chance, not just predator-dependent animals like deer.

I think I’ll cut real quick to the end of the story, so that people won’t have to wait forever to see where I am going as I go through hunter-gatherer life, through cultivation and the development of civilization and the development of modern civilization and its relationship to population dynamics – that will be a long time to wait before I finally reveal where I am going with this. So I will just jump ahead to my final conclusion and reveal where I am leading.

Where am I going with this whole discussion? Basically, I have been reading a whole lot on the Anthropik site and find much to admire there. It seems very much orthodox Daniel Quinn, and there is a lot of great stuff in Daniel Quinn.

But …

and please consider my opinions to be liberally sprinkled with the requisite “in my humble opinions” necessary for courtesy…

for all Quinn’s other wisdom, his views on population dynamics and the relationship of population growth and civilization have serious fundamental problems.

Taken to their logical conclusion, Quinn’s views on population lead only to the conclusion that the Anthopik site holds as an absolute certainty: that we are headed for the most horrific period in human history, an agonizing and miserable death for billions of people, and as agonizing as this process will be, this die-off is inevitable and it is our only hope.

But where I am ultimately leading, and will build the case absolutely as carefully and solidly as necessary because this question is so fundamental and important:

  • civilization collapse is NOT synonymous with massive species die-off and mass horrific agony and suffering; on the contrary –

  • the day that civilization collapses will be a day of liberation for the Third World, and that will also be the day that population starts to stabilize and return to normal levels;

(figuratively speaking, of course, as it won’t be one day)

  • there will be hardship and suffering for some, in inverse proportion to their flexibility and resourcefulness, but the NET suffering of our species will be greatly reduced.

(Among Quinnians, there is little attention given to how the Third World is suffering NOW because, in Quinnian terms, it is only going to get worse, any concern about them is wasted anyway because they are all just doomed to breed themselves into starvation anyway.) (If anyone really disputes that Quinn is saying this, and really needs me to dig up specific quotes to prove that this is exactly what he says.)

But the status quo is what represents Third World suffering. The collapse of civilization is not only not synonymous with Third World die-off (“billions of people” has to mean the Third World, since the entire “First World” totals only about one billion) but rather, the collapse of civilization is the HOPE for poor countries. The poorest countries have the BEST prospects, with collapse, not the worst. Collapse is the only HOPE for the poor of our planet and things can come back into balance, including population balance, there the fastest.

  • Rewilding the industrialized countries helps to bring down civilization faster, hastens the liberation of the Third World, and helps to prepare the population here for a smoother landing, though it will be bumpy in industrialized countries.

  • Jason and his tribe can be finally freed from the burden of agonizing over the painful miserable horrific die-off of billions, and celebrate collapse with a clear conscience.

That is why I think that Jason will be happy by the time I am finished.

But since this such a fundamental, important question, I will take all the time necessary to discuss all aspects of this question fully.