The Terrifying Future Scenario (if there's no collapse)

Visions of the Rewilding Renaissance
#21

Yeah, the idea of civilization continuing, the whole techno-salvation dream really freaks me out too. At the same time, there is a little doubting voice in the back of my mind, speaking particularly loud when I consider the deaths that collapse might entail. THis voice asks whether my fear of continuing civ is irational, based on a desire for adventure and something new. Whether I want collapse and say that it is good to justify my desire to live a better life. Does anyone else ever hear that voice?

On a completely different note, I just stumbled across this(http://www.solnx.org/) new vision of continuing civ and I don’t know how to respond, what do people think?

#22

Solnx.org wouldnt load for me, i’ll check it out again a little later. Im familiar with the voice you speak about. Im not sure what to say about it right now because im feeling a bit overwhelmed at the moment. Its just that my first reaction to techno-salvation babble is exactly like my first reaction to division of labor and prisons and all that control freak stuff. I do have a need for adventure and something new and I WILL act upon my needs. How can i not?

#23

Of course we should act upon our needs, but my problem is balancing that with the destruction that accompanies collapse. If there would be a way to avoid that destruction, how could I, in any moral concsience, go against it purely to stisfy my needs?

#24

yes the destruction… either way, whatever way, people will have blood on their hands. We have to make personal decisions nonetheless. If we do nothing we have the blood of the victims of this way on our hands, if we do otherwise we might have other blood on our hands. You know that story someone told here not so long ago about cutting the throat of a suffering deer. Maybe i see us as being that hunter. There are many other stories we could make it though. How much do we heal ? How much healing will we have on our hands? How much when we leave things as they are? how much when we grow gardens? I do not ask for moral purity. Doubt keeps me on my toes and i often wonder wheter im wrong, but even when in doubt i make choices. So the blood on your hands question is maybe misleading on its own? there are so many more questions that could be asked and perhaps answered.

#25

Thank you timeless, I agree, it is important to focus on the amount of healing. You are right, we cannot be completely morally pure, but still, I feel the desire to act for the good of the whole, but that is so paralysing, for who can know what is good. If civ continues, the collapse further along could be a hundred times worse, cost millions of lives, but who knows, and the blood could be on my hands now. Cutting the throat of the suffering deer we can see the pain and that the end is coming anyway, but nothing is so clear cut here. I guess we must act, like all mortals must, through the fog of incomplete knowledge, take responsibility for our actions, and stake our claim. Is failing through indecision worse than failing through making the wrong decision?

#26

Its not just that collapse further down the road would be more awful then collapse now would be, going down that road of civ and control itself has a very steep price attached to it even in the extremely hypothetical case that it would be able to endlessly continue on its path. So lets say that this thing isnt going to end, there will still be blooded hands aplenty. Think of it like this, they say the third reich has made some 9 million victims or somesuch, then they say Stalin made some 60 millions or something, in both of these countries total population has continued to rise. So does population continue to rise under its civ chokehold but its victims arent counted how dare we do such a thing. Maybe we still don’t see them as victims but as offerings to progress like the people sacrificed in the Aztec culture who so stunningly stripped the system to its core element,the sacrificing of human life, and worshipped that, the bloody entails of their civilization. Civilizations creates an excessive amount of victims that go uncounted for. We are quick to point them out to dismiss one poltical view or another, but really i think we should consider the grease that makes our machine go round.

hmm

#27

True, true, civ does take its toll so much, not only on humans but also on the rest of the world - we live by violence (and I mean violence beyond the natural, animal scale). The problem is that so many solutions to allow civ to continue seem to remove all that sacrifice. Solnx is a good example, I think the website (www.solnx.org) works now, if you’re still interested. It seems to fantastic, but then sceince is doign fantastic things now.

#28

What fantastic things has science done? From my point of view, we’ve barely stepped beyond leeches.

Don’t worry too much about the thorium angle; it looks like some major physical properties keep it from making a viable fuel, hence why none of the 6.5 billion people on earth have yet become mega-billionaires overnight by doing so. The incentive certainly exists, so when that many people try and fail, it usually has something to do with it fundamentally not working.

In the case of nuclear fuel, it can never replace fossil fuels, simply because of how much fossil fuel it takes to get nuclear fuel in the first place! Uranium supplies peaked back in the 1980’s. I don’t doubt we’ll see a surge of nuclear power initiatives, but I also don’t doubt that it will all rely on government subsidy, not on its ability to actually fuel itself.

#29

I admit that what science has done may not have been good for humanity, but it certaintly has done something - gone to moon, nuclear fusion, robotics, cybernetics and computing - you can’t say that’s nothing.

#30

civilization creates and is a series of interwebbed conundrums…mental traps that will require us to step outside of the ‘mind’ to finally move beyond

and …again… i see, feel, experience how broad and deep civilization really is.

#31

[quote=“new.orangutang, post:29, topic:729”][quote author=jason link=topic=779.msg9228#msg9228 date=1206753166]
we’ve barely stepped beyond leeches.
[/quote]

I admit that what science has done may not have been good for humanity, but it certaintly has done something - gone to moon, nuclear fusion, robotics, cybernetics and computing - you can’t say that’s nothing.[/quote]

But, what has that really done for us? Seductive addictions that look good, but share more trouble in the end than worth.

#32

[quote=“Fenriswolfr, post:31, topic:729”][quote author=new.orangutang link=topic=779.msg9237#msg9237 date=1206762115]

I admit that what science has done may not have been good for humanity, but it certaintly has done something - gone to moon, nuclear fusion, robotics, cybernetics and computing - you can’t say that’s nothing.
[/quote]
But, what has that really done for us? Seductive addictions that look good, but share more trouble in the end than worth.[/quote]
I completely agree with the impact of the technologies, but they still look really good, and are good enough to keep us at a high level of complexity for a little while anyway, so they have done something, just maybe not a good something.

#33

VERY interesting and scary topic.

I agree with the topic as well. You know when i talk to people about our current socio-economic crisis, rising gas prises, cost of living, more death and violence, mother nature has finally snapped (and lemme tell you i think she has IMMENSE AMOUNT of patience and it probably takes a lot to make her snap) and started to throw disasters our way. Most people say, “yea it’s scary” or that the collapse of civ (which most intelligent ppl i have talked to agree with that it is slowly happening) scares them. You know what i really have nightmares about, If we go back to living a feral life, a life of hunter-gatherers, back to the “good” life, what would prevent us from - a few millenia from now - from making the SAME mistake we did that lead to our current way of living. It HAS happened before. What if years after civ collapse, what would prevent humaity from trying to again go back to technological advances, and soon to exactly where we are now?

-Tj

#34

As a former history teacher and as a one time member of an elite military unit I can tell you that Civilization is closer to collapse than anyone can possibly imagine.
According to the latest figures the USA will only half about half of the food surplus it had last harvest, and yet the number of people that rely on that surplus will have increased by about 20%.
If the weather continues to be as erratic as it was this past winter and spring the USA will be faced with a food shortage after the next harvest.
This will present a major problem to the world as the USA provides almost 70% of the worlds food and this includes China and Russia.
Both of these countries have relied on American grain since the late 70’s early 80’s to make up for their inability to produce enough food for their people.
While the wealthier nations will still be able to purchase/trade for American grain the poorer countries will be facing a famine of immense proportion.
As these countries begin to collapse in on themselves the hordes of starving refugees will begin to swarm in on those countries that are still able to feed themselves.
Given that most of this will occur in what we call third world countries, mainly those in Africa, most people will turn a blind eye until these hordes reach what are the mineral and oil producing nations of this area.
With the UN unable to feed this mass of people and lacking the man-power to physiclly stop them, two solutions will be presented that are both terrible in their results.
The first is the limited then increasing use of massive scale bombing up to and including low yield nuclear weapons. Considering how most of the world feels about the use of massive destruction let alone nuclear weapons this is not a very desirerable solution.
This leads us to the second which involves letting each nation deal with the hordes in what ever way they can…after the ffirst 4 or 5 fall under this onslaught then the rest of the world will allow those that remain to conduct solution number one.
As bad as this is most wealthier nations will have already enacted some type of martial law to restrict the use of any and all materials, oils, food until their Governments can figure out a solution to the growing threat.
Mind you that as each nation falls it will increase the size of the horde and the pressure being placed on the next nation.
The US Government determined that in such an unlikely event, that strict rationing would become the law and that all civil liberties would be suspended until such time as conditions improved. This was enacted back in 1976 during the last Gas crisis. It was amended following the collapse of Communist Russia to also include the enacting of Martial Law and that all police forces would become federalized to help maintain order.
Several think tanks concluded that even with such Orwellean tactics that the USA would last less than a year after the collapse of the Middle East.
Europe would last about 3 to 6 months, Russia would last about 8 to 12 months, China would last about 10 to 16 months. Most of the other countries would last less than 6 months. Austrialia/Oceania could last as much as 3 to 5 years if they were willing and able to kill every group of refugees that attempted to land.
Unless something along the lines of a miracle happens in the next 18 to 24 months we can expect these events to start happening.
Based on a lot of statistical data and studies of group dynamics every think tank came to the conclusion that mankind would probably be knocked back to about the age of feudalism within the space of 10 years and that the worlds population would be reduced to less than one billion during this time frame…oddly enough mans weapons would only cause about 10% of the deaths that would occur while the rest would be the result of famine, plagues and the diseases that crop up from so many dead being unburied or cremated.
Those people that are prepared today for the collapse stand a better chance of living through this turmoil but when you consider that 98 out of every 100 people are going to die every little bit of preperation you do before hand makes it more likely you will be 1 of the 2.
Sorry this ran so long and is very scary to contemplate.

#35

So when is all this doom and gloom supposed to happen?I keep hearing all of these stories about mass die off and such,then I walk outside and look around and I just hear birds and see the sky and land.It seems to me that the doom and gloom scenarios reflect only part truth.It seems these myths are born from dominator culture telling us we are mortal evil and that we will destroy everything no matter what,and fed by our human emotion.To me emotion seems like a very potent paralyzer in the domesticated state most of us are faced with.I have experienced almost debilitating depression relating to end of the world information presented as though it were the only truth possible.

#36

Green I understand and share your confusion at the apparent lack of visable evidence to support the theory that civilizations collapse is getting very close.
I can also understand that many people will view what is happening globally as just another part of life’s big dance.
I realize that there are a lot of scientists that veiw the drastic weather as just part of mothers normal routine albeit a bit extreme.
Last but not least far to many people still consider the USA to be a benevolent big brother that would never allow itself to become a tyranical society of frightened sheep being lead to slaughter.
My answer is still this, Even if I am wrong and none of this comes to pass in my lifetime I have still made people aware that it will not happen overnight and that being prepared is better than being left as another lamb headed to the slaughter.

#37

http://anthropik.com/2006/01/thesis-29-it-will-be-impossible-to-rebuild-civilization/
Maybe after tens of millions of years, apparently. I personally don’t know how long it takes to create fossil fuel reserves abundant enough for a recently-civilised society to get started burning, so if Godesky is somehow wrong about it taking that long, there may be more to worry about.

Accepting Godesky’s analysis of the unlikelyhood of agriculture after this crash requires more of a leap of faith for me, as I know nothing of climate patterns, but as the soil is good and depleted, I think I’m safe from re-emerging agriculture in my lifetime at least. Assuming I escape the final thrashes of the dying civ, and somehow find a tribe to live with in the aftermath :-\

If by ‘doom and gloom’ you mean the collapse of civilisation: http://anthropik.com/2006/02/timeline-of-collapse/
It should be obvious by 2020, in all probability. Although I personally can’t wait.

I keep hearing all of these stories about mass die off and such,then I walk outside and look around and I just hear birds and see the sky and land.
I expect those things will still be there ??? What will not be there much longer is a human population numbering in the billions, nor anything else that has been enabled by massive fossil fuel consumption. I suppose any animal populations enabled by civilisation will also crash - civic pigeons etc.? But a decent proportion of wild animals should muddle through the upheaval. This won't be the first radical change of environment to hit the inhabitants of this globe. I don't think there's much more we can do to the sky or land before we go, either, compared to what we've already done.
#38

Hi all,

I remember reading an article in the paper in the spring or summer of 92. It was about a conference that had just taken place in Toronto, where there were 800 specialists, and -logists of all aspects of life and living on Earth. And they all agreed on a common conclusion, that total chaos was inevitable within one decade, or two at the most. The article was just a short one posted at the bottom of page 21 or something.

Well, we made it past 2002 without total chaos, but I’m not so sure about 2012.

I’m just wondering if the “Plutocrassic Perverts” will be able to implement their totalitarian regime in spite of chaos. I know I’ll refuse becoming some kind of “Cyborgian” cog in “their” machine.

#39

I have logged in so I could resond to this discussion 3 or 4 times today, written my response, then decided not to post it.

I am aware and realize that these scenarios are being played out in other parts of the world as I am typing this. In no way do I want to minimize that.
For some reason that I don’t have the words to express, my gut tells me that putting a lot of energy into ensuring that I survive the coming collapse is not what I should focus on.

Hoka hey, it’s a good day to die, carpe diem and all that.

I’m here right now, who knows about tomorrow.

#40

I’m starting to observe the world in a somewhat “backwards” manner. I’ve been wanting things to get worse. At least in the economic sense. I want gas prices to be higher, food more expensive, luxuries unavailable, the foundation of the society shaken, because I know it’s an inevitability. I want my friends and family who don’t share my passion for the elegant, the intimate and the simplistic to feel that it’s merely part of the changing times and not some pursuit of a “holier” lifestyle. I know in all probability a “slow collapse” will probably be worse in the end, but I can’t ask for a quick one. I’m just not able to. I’d prefer that this thing “unfolds” rather than “crashes”, as selfish as that may sound.